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Category Archives: Social Networking

Thoughts from Web 2.0 Expo: Communilytics

03 Monday May 2010

Posted by Thai Bui in Analytics, Social Networking, Technology, Web 2.0 Expo

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analytics, social, w2e

My first day at Web 2.0 Expo 2010 was spent in the Applied Communilytics Intensive workshop.  Basically, it was a look at how and why you should look at the analytics of social marketing campaigns and was headed by Alistair Croll and Sean Power of Watching Websites.  Here is their rundown of the day.

My take?  It was too high-level for me and didn’t really get into a lot of details.  Maybe I’ve been living in the world of web and business analytics too much but there really wasn’t much new or ground-breaking here.  But there were some interesting points.

For example: the primary point that Sean kept referring to all day was that you should know your business goals before you embark on any social campaign, so you know what to measure and whether or not you’re succeeding.  Seems obvious and, well, is obvious.  Ryan Kuder, one of the panelists who was recently laid off from his company due to an acquisition (awkward!) harped on that point, too.  This sounds like the gripes from marketers who are asked to do work because some exec thinks it’s interesting instead of knowing why it’s important.  I feel your pain; I know I feel it all the time.  But unfortunately, that doesn’t make for an interesting presentation about communilytics.  That’s really just Project Management 101: be very clear about your goal.

In the defense of the presenters, I think they really did know what they were talking about and if I had a particular question, I think they’d be great resources.  Which leads me to believe that the lack of detail in the presentation stems from one of two things:

  1. It’s difficult to create a detailed presentation with truly actionable ideas in this area for this broad of a group.
  2. Communilytics really is just a flavor of web/business analytics and there really is no other special sauce.  Know your goals, translate to KPIs, and you’re off to the races.

So which do I think it is?  At the end of the day, we joined with the Lean Startup Intensive by Eric Ries.  At the end of that session, Eric said that those of us in attendance were at the cutting edge of this stuff, the earliest adopters, the trail blazers.  If that’s true, then it’s #2.  And I tend to agree.

Here at Intuit, it really doesn’t feel like we’re doing anything that cutting edge in tracking or measuring our social efforts, but Kira Wampler  told me that everyone told her that we were cutting edge, too.  Maybe I’ve been living and breathing analytics and optimization so much that I’ve lost sight of that.

I’ll just spew out my other observations… uh… now:

  • Referring URLs are useless (or becoming more useless) as people follow links found in apps (like desktop/phone Twitter apps).
  • Alistair and Sean defined your message as becoming “viral” when the average number of people who repeat/amplify/retweet your message is > 1.  Maybe not a new definition, but I hadn’t heard it before.
  • A lot rides on your ability to get your followers/fans/users to “retweet” or otherwise amplify your message (in Facebook, would that be “like”?).  So watch and track that carefully; learn from what does and doesn’t trigger a retweet from your base.
  • Successful social campaigns are not about me (the company) or you (the user) but about something else. Get the user into a safe conversation where they don’t feel they owe you anything in return (money, time, etc.). Not terribly new, but illustrated amusingly by Alistair with a story about picking up women in Las Vegas.
  • Tactic: send meeting requests to bloggers to get on their calendars. Makes sense to me; that’s how to make sure I do something too!
  • You can’t really A/B test Twitter messages (it’s a broadcast medium so everyone gets it). One alternative: use PPC ad copy and measure click-through rate to test your message if you really want to.  Or as Hiten Shah from Kiss Metrics suggested, just send it out and apologize if it bombs.
  • Alistair predicted that we’ll go from a PPC to a PPA (acquisition) to a PP-change-of-opinion model.  That is, as social sites get better at measuring your brand value on their network, they could charge you based on that increase, not just per impression, click, or acquisition.  Interesting to consider.
  • And the people who impressed me were the presenters, Alistair Croll and Sean Powell, as well as Hiten Shah, Erin Hunter, and Dave McClure.

And that’s it!  Looking forward to tomorrow!

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MySpace vs. Facebook

25 Thursday Oct 2007

Posted by Thai Bui in Social Networking, Technology, Web 2.0

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Facebook, MySpace

The buzz continues with Facebook picking up another half a billion dollars today at a $15B valuation, or an amazing ~100 times estimated revenue.

MySpace is trying to defend it’s territory, and in raw numbers it’s still kicking Facebook’s butt. Here’s some interesting data touting MySpace’s might.

It’s astounding really.  It’s easy to jump in and gripe about how ridiculous the valuation is but it’s not totally out of the realm of possibility.  But clearly, Facebook would have to be beyond Google-ish in it’s growth to make it reasonable.

I think an early Internet growth company should get a valuation of somewhere around 20-30 times revenue, and a mature company should get somewhere around 10 times revenue.  Even Google, who is still growing like gangbusters, is incredibly sexy, and swathed in hype, is only worth 14 times revenue.

Facebook is early enough and is growing fast enough that it’s revenue should be growing at more than 100% per year.  At 100%/year, for two years, they would be at ~$600M/year.  Then, they’d have to stay at the 70-80%/year growth rate that Google has to warrant the 14 times revenue number.  And that’s just to justify $15B; by the end of two years, I assume MS and the other investors are hoping it’s worth $30B.

Can they do it?  That’s going to be really, really hard.

Google’s failure to diversify

01 Saturday Jul 2006

Posted by Thai Bui in Social Networking, Technology, Web 2.0

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Google, MySpace, Yahoo

Really interesting read on Business Week on Google’s hype but lack of actual market delivery on many of its products beyond its flagship Search.

The stats cited (assuming they’re accurate) are really eye-opening:

Google Talk, an instant-messaging service launched last August, now ranks No. 10, garnering just 2% of the number of users for market leader MSN Messenger, according to comScore Media Metrix. Three-month-old Google Finance, heralded as a competitor to market leader Yahoo! Finance, has settled in as the 40th-most-visited finance site, according to data from Hitwise, a competitive intelligence firm. Gmail, the e-mail service that was lauded at its 2004 launch for offering 500 times as much storage space as some rivals (they quickly closed the gap), today is the system of choice for only about one-quarter the number of people who use MSN and Yahoo e-mail…

…Take Orkut, Google’s two-year-old social-networking site. Since making an initial splash, Orkut has seen limited changes and has faded in popularity everywhere except Brazil. Today it draws less than 1% as much U.S. traffic as MySpace.

The article does admit that there are some great successes to tout, like Google Maps. But in general, despite some really fancy technology and cool features, they can’t reach the marketshare they want.

Clearly, Google is still a successful company and every company out there would love the level of press coverage (read: hype) and batting average that Google has (Homestead included). But I think the facts show what many of us already believed: while it is a great technology company and great recruiting company, it’s currently only a decent product company and a worse product marketing company. Oh, and they’re run by engineers.

As Don Dodge writes, their products’ success “depends on how much effort Google puts into making them better, and how much real value they deliver to users”.

Also, given the unbelievably favorable opinion that the blogosphere (and Internet industry in general) has of Google and everything it touches, the fact that most of their launches haven’t gotten much traction reminds us of something else. It reminds us that most of the world doesn’t listen to us.

Update: The discussion continues: Michael Parekh focuses on how Google and the others can better market these hyped products.

Mugshot, from Red Hat

01 Thursday Jun 2006

Posted by Thai Bui in Social Networking, Technology, Web 2.0

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MySpace

Wow, everyone's jumping on the bandwagon.

First, sorry to all (heh) my readers. I've been gone for the past month and work was really wicked busy for the weeks preceding my break as I was preparing for the break. Homestead gives you a paid sabbatical every 5 years and I just took my second one. It was fantabulistic!

Anyway, Red Hat launched Mugshot.org, yet another social network.  Wow, how many can there be?  The buzz around is that Red Hat is more interested in getting an open source social network out there, as opposed to building a destination themselves.  Maybe that's true; in a strange way, that makes way more sense to me.

You gotta go faster, baby

18 Saturday Mar 2006

Posted by Thai Bui in Social Networking, Technology, Web 2.0

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

MySpace

Interesting article on why your website has to change, and when you’re done, has to change again. Often times, it’s too easy to think of websites as software, when frankly, it’s not. More often then not, websites are marketing. And marketing has to change and adapt to the needs, wants, and fantasies of your customer.

At Homestead, we try to push the envelope of this everyday. We want to move faster, while actually releasing stable, usable, well-written and well-designed software. Luckily, we are in a segment of the industry that isn’t as capricious as social networking, where the high-fructose-corn-syrup-powered whims of teens controls your fate. Our customers are a little more discerning and a little more consistent in their needs.

But, as we all know, only the paranoid survive and the paranoia just pushes you to move faster and faster.

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