Michael Arrington unwrapped the cover from 3bubbles today on his blog. 3bubbles allows bloggers to easily integrate chat sessions on their blogs.

Arrington seems to love the idea and predicts that 3bubbles will really successful, but I think that’s incredibly short-sighted. He claims in his blog that chat was really successful on TechCrunch and he even took the time to respond to comments saying that “it is an amazing tool for me and I think it will be extremely popular based on prior experiments.”

But I agree with many of the comments on his blog; for the vast majority of blogs, there aren’t enough concurrent users to get a decent conversation going most of the time. Yes, chat may have been successful for him, but he must realize that he’s one of the most successful bloggers in the world. If he doesn’t realize this, then I guess I appreciate his humility, but it’s probably more likely that he overestimates the power of random people blogging.

Yes, this is a great feature for sites like TechCrunch and Memeorandum, but it will be useless for the vast majority of bloggers (myself included). Even worse, none of the smaller bloggers who even try this feature will stick with it when they see “chat(0)” at the bottom of every post.

Basically, if 3bubbles is going to make it as a company, it either has to sell a ton of licenses (or generate a ton of ad revenue) from the little guys, or sell a few licenses to the big guys (like TechCrunch and Memeorandum) for lots of money.

I think the first method is going to fail and the technology is so easy to replicate that the second thing isn’t going to work either.